The Washington Post
By ABHA Bhattarai Published May 19,2022
U.S. may be barreling toward recession in the next year, more experts say
The U.S. Economy could be heading for a recession in the next year,………
Financial markets fell again on Thursday, a day after the Dow Jones industrial average suffered its worst drop of the year. The S&P 500 inched further into bear market territory – defined as a 20 percent drop from the most recent peak- after Wednesday’s sell-off wiped out more than 4 percent of its value.
“Recession risks are high – uncomfortably high – and rising,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “For the economy to navigate through without suffering a downturn, we need some very deft policymaking from the Fed and a bit of luck.”
This week alone, former Goldman Sachs chief executive Lloyd Blankfein warned of a ‘very, very high risk” of recession; Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said there was “no question” that the U.S. economy is heading toward a downturn; and former Fed chair Ben Bernanke cautioned that the country could be poised for “stagflation” – a slowing economy combined with high inflation.“In Alexandria, Va., mortgage lender Kevin Retcher said there is a discernible skittishness among potential home buyers. Refinances began tumbling late last year, around the time the Fed began signaling upcoming rate increases. In the months since, a combination of rising mortgage rates – now at 5.3 percent for a fixed-rate 30-year mortgage, nearly double early 2021 levels – and sky-high home prices have begun deterring buyers, he said. At least three clients have gotten “cold feet” and pulled out of ratified contracts in the past two weeks, he added.
“There is an extreme sense of nervousness out there,” said Retcher, president of First Meridian Mortgage. “It’s rare to have people win contracts and then back out, but that’s what’s been happening.”
Other types of small businesses say they’re seeing a pullback in consumer demand, too, as customers grapple with rising costs. Aaron Mulherin, who owns a glass repair company in Marion, Iowa, said that while homeowners are continuing to pay for necessities such as fixing broken windows, they’re starting to think twice about spending on luxuries such as custom showers.”Average, middle-class consumers are starting to hesitate,” Mulherin said. “Everything is getting more expensive, so they’re getting an estimate, then putting it off.”
If you would like to contact Kevin Retcher at First Meridian Mortgage call 703-799-5626 email at Kevin@firstmeridianmortgage.com. NMLS ID#180004 WWW.NMLSCONSUMERACCESS.ORG
